An unwieldy and spontaneous opposition has won its first battle against the government; now it needs a strategy
Nobody in government, least of all President Goodluck_Jonathan ]Goodluck Jonathan, seemed prepared for the torrent of opposition excited by the decision to end fuel subsidies. This doubled the retail price of petrol on New Year’s Day. The inflationary effect of the new fuel prices on goods and services was devastating for poor people and lost the government any goodwill it had picked up since April’s elections. Many know that the main beneficiaries of the subsidy are a cabal of crooked oil traders, so they ask why the government can’t pursue them and keep the fuel cheap for the public.Muslims and Christians united in protest and protected each other from the security forces, from the commercial capital Lagos to the northern trading centre of Kano. Optimists, of which Nigeria has more than most countries, saw this spontaneous unity of protestors across the country as a response to doom-laden forecasts that Nigeria would break up. The latest round of shooting and bombing by the Islamist Boko Haram militia in the north (AC Vol 53 No 1, A year of living dangerously) prompted criticism from intellectuals and nobel laureate Wole Soyinka commented that Nigeria has reached a ‘dismal watershed’ when militias shoot the faithful in their places of worship.It took two weeks, a national strike, threats to disrupt oil exports, mass street demonstrations and ten deaths before the government realised that removing the whole subsidy at a stroke was politically unsustainable. Then, on 16 January, Jonathan announced that he would restore half of the subsidy.
Far from winning credibility, this concession emboldened the opposition movement – the young activists, the trades unionists and the opposition parties – which wants a national debate about the cost of government. Its targets are the massive and mainly secret security vote (more than 20% of the budget) and the presidency and state procurement contracts. Younger activists want to go further and cut the salaries of the lawmakers and state governors of all political parties: with a national senator’s basic salary starting at over US$1 million a year, they are among the highest enjoyed by politicians anywhere in the world.
Jonathan’s compromise
The fuel subsidy had been under serious threat since October 2010, when the Finance Ministry’s Medium Term Expenditure Framework proposed that it be removed by January 2011. Then the government judged April 2011 to be more feasible. Then elections intervened, so Austen Oniwon, Group Managing Director of the state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), said the subsidy would end from April 2012, as part of the deregulation moves in the 2012 budget.
[Image:nig10a.jpg]The die was cast in the 4.749 trillion naira ($29.19 billion) budgetary allocations released in November 2011, which contained no provision for a continuing subsidy on fuel. Jonathan’s compromise, announced on 16 January, means the government will have to find another $4 bn. to meet this unforeseen bill. Despite his established line against the subsidy, many of his opponents chose to portray Petroleum Minister Diezani_Allison-Madueke ]Diezani Allison-Madueke and Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as dictating the measure, with the President meekly acquiescing to these powerful women.
[Image:1242012_71333_0.png]The subsidy distorted the market and was cripplingly expensive, costing N3.655 trillion between 2006 and September 2011, according to the findings of a Senate committee led by Senator Magnus Ngei Abe. The lawmakers called the oil marketers a cabal, fleecing the nation of vital funds to develop its decaying infrastructure. Jonathan acknowledges the existence of such cabals. Anti-corruption activists argue that to cut government losses, he should have sent his new Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Ibrahim Lamorde, after the criminals, instead of hiking fuel prices.
The Senate published a list of rogue companies and their promoters, accusing them of stealing the country’s wealth through questionable subsidy claims. The list included donors to the governing People’s Democratic Party, businessmen with close links to the presidency and also some individuals with links to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and other opposition parties.
Zenon Oil’s Chief Executive Officer, Femi Otedola, who is a known friend of Jonathan’s, was said to have collected subsidies worth billions of naira. Oando Nigeria received subsidies worth N228.506 bn.; the company is linked to the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, whose cousin Wale Tinubu is the group’s Chief Executive, with a powerful retired officer, Major General Mohammed Magoro, on the board.
The order to end the subsidy was mismanaged. The announcement, probably the most important economic decision of the year, was made by an NNPC official on 1 January and it was made while the government was giving the impression that it was consulting the people and stakeholders. A ‘town hall meeting’ was organised by the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria, led by the colourful publisher of This Day, [ http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/2630/Nduka_Obaigbena ]Nduka Obaigbena. NPAN hosted ministers such as Okonjo-Iweala and Allison-Madueke, who lambasted the wealthy traders who benefit from the subsidy.
Signs that the trades union leaders were willing to cut a deal came on 14 January, after five days of the national strike. Even without that, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Sanusi Lamido Aminu Sanusi said the strike had cost $1 bn. Abdulwaheed Omar, President of the National Labour Congress, announced on 13 January, after meeting with the government, that the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (Pengassan), would ‘not shut down oil production, as earlier planned for Sunday’. Pengassan insiders claim nothing had been agreed with the NLC chief.
After more talks over the weekend, more union leaders backed a deal, although many activists and opposition politicians vehemently disagreed. That allowed Jonathan to announce his compromise deal on 16 January. As his speech was being aired, soldiers were taking position across Lagos, centre of the protest rallies and stronghold of the opposition ACN, and setting up checkpoints. At the Gani Fawehinmi Memorial Park in the Lagos suburb of Ojota, soldiers dismantled the podium, from which activists and musicians such as Seun Kuti had attacked the government amid the strikes and protests. Lagos State Governor Babatunde_Fashola ]Babatunde Fashola, whose ACN opposed the removal of the fuel subsidy, criticised the military manoeuvres.
The union leaders suspended the strike and protests, leaving many activists perplexed and angry. The Joint Action Forum, the civil society affiliate of the labour unions, disassociated itself from the suspension of the mass action which it had agreed with the union leaders.Among the most prominent of the opposition voices was Tunde Bakare, 57, Pentecostal clergyman and vice-presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). He relentlessly called for Jonathan’s impeachment. ACN leader Bola_Tinubu ]Bola Tinubu – whose relations with Bakare have been tense since the presidential election, when talks for an ACN-CPC coalition fell through – stayed away from the fuel subsidy protests and maintained an unusually low profile during the period. He issued a statement referring to the removal of the fuel subsidy as a ‘Jonathan tax’ and ‘wrong-headed economics.’
The protests were not restricted to Lagos. Protestors gathered daily, mostly in the south-west and across the north, carrying placards and chanting anti-Jonathan slogans. In Kano and Abuja, protestors attempted to camp overnight but were dispersed by armed policemen. Yet in the south-east and ‘South-South’, which voted overwhelmingly for Jonathan last year, there was far less activism and criticism of the government.
Social media
The protests provided an opportunity for young Nigerians, many with mobile telephones with web access and active on social media, to assert themselves in the country’s tumultuous politics. Like their North African counterparts last year, they organised protests through Facebook and Twitter and the ‘Occupy Nigeria’ established itself.
Groups such as ‘Enough Is Enough (EiE) Nigeria’, which promotes better governance and accountability, have been strengthened by the protests and the securing of concessions from government. The struggle will not end there, they insist. Some are embittered by what they see as a messy compromise with Jonathan last week. They want more openness and accountability across the country, not just in government but in opposition parties and trades unions as well.
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